I suppose we can try to paint a rosy picture of our industry's future by simply saying that 2025 will not be a boring year.
We will have exciting new technologies. We will have new political leadership with policies that will impact everyone who flies, drives or sails. And we will continue to work and travel down a rabbit hole filled with tens of thousands of information streams impacting our decisions in myriad ways.
Let me share some of the items on my radar:
Personalization is the new expectation:
Travel planners no longer need to just know where the guest wants to go; they need to "know" the guest. Clients expect this and will increasingly expect that travel planners will break the bounds of "brochure sameness" and produce experiences based on their profile and identity. Travelers at all price points are anticipating personal touches at every step of the process.
Suppliers will need to provide personalized trip descriptions based on data touchpoints in a client's profile. Every interaction with a travel brand could be recorded and added to that profile.
More travelers will say 'no' to 40-passenger bus touring:
In conversations with two major upscale tour operators, I have been told that one of the strongest and most surprising trends they are seeing is the demand for higher-priced, small-group journeys promising no more than 18 or 24 guests. Travelers do not wish to arrive at a site in a large tour bus, and they may be embarrassed to be required to walk behind a tour guide holding a huge sign or a colorful umbrella. Look for increasing use of quality headsets so guides can easily be heard.
A need waiting to be filled: News bites for visitors:
Americans visiting a destination for the first time will want to know what stories have occupied the local newspapers in the weeks just prior to their visit. What are they stepping into? What are the local hot topics? This is an information service that has largely been overlooked. Someone will successfully fill this void.
Online loyalty programs will grow using AI:
This will mean rewarding guests who book online with specific price/benefit rewards. Using a favorite site will also speed up the process, as the guest profile will be instantly available.
A record 4.7 billion flyers will have an impact on fares:
It appears that domestic airfares will continue to decrease when compared with the previous year. Domestic seat capacity and the drop in fuel costs account for an average domestic ticket price (source: Hopper) of $276 roundtrip. But we will not see this trend in international travel, where airline capacity and shortages of both pilots and air traffic controllers will continue to contribute to price increase of an estimated 10% year over year.
Revenge travel is over:
The urge to travel after Covid's emotional incarceration spurred a movement pundits called revenge travel. It is over. Some analysts see a decrease in demand for overseas travel that could result in more availability for summer (and lower prices).
The great international traveler irony will increase:
I am finding a discernible reverse within international travel. Given the rainfall of information that will drench prospective travelers abroad, we are looking at a cohort that is better informed, experientially minded and, of course, aging before our very eyes. Here is the irony: We are starting to see new, younger travelers seeking out "mature" destinations, for example, so their selfies can properly record the Colosseum with their smile in the foreground. Meanwhile, more mature travelers are now seeking "out-of-the-ordinary" destinations so they can tell their friends where they have been -- and where their friends have not. So, it may be fair to say that mature destinations are increasingly attracting a non-mature clientele.
A lost opportunity in travel may finally be addressed:
The data I have collected within my company indicates that 73% of clients would prefer "life experiences" when they travel instead of the more traditional "major sites in historical context" that has been the mainstay for U.S. tourists abroad for decades. Several companies, of course, have specialized in experiential travel and "like a local" programs. This is, I believe, an opportunity that will see further development.
Hot weather will increase cool searches:
Growing summer heat issues in Europe are resulting in dramatic increases in searches for Scandinavia, Iceland and other cool destinations. Major airlines, including Air Canada and American, are increasing flights to cities in Scandinavia in anticipation of this trend. Travelers who use a trusted advisor are increasingly being told to avoid Spain, France and Italy from June through August. The major destinations that led searches in 2023 -- London, Rome, Tokyo, Cancun and Las Vegas (sources: Kayak and Hopper) -- are, as a result of the extreme summer heat last year, being challenged.
Conversation with OTAs and suppliers will be more sophisticated:
Generative AI developments mean that the consumer can have a conversation online about their travel interests similar to the chat thread they just had with a friend. An AI "human replication" with unbeatable access to knowledge is available 24/7. And the AI knows who it is talking to.
Airlines use of dynamic pricing will increase:
Most consumers have still not caught on to the fact that dynamic pricing means that your brother-in-law may get a better airfare quote even though you both signed on to the same airline site at the same time. The latest AI uses much more up-to-date data like past customer searches and weather predictions to create one-of-a-kind pricing based on a consumer's online profile across perhaps thousands of websites. The profile is being enlarged daily with data from Google, Amazon and YouTube, among others.
Shore excursions will continue to be an area of focus for lines:
It is said that the travel industry lost about 40% of the certified guides in Europe during the pandemic years. They have not been replaced, and cruise lines offering shore excursions are under increasing pressure to enhance the quality of the guides and their offerings. Abercrombie & Kent has said it will design some shore excursions for Crystal beginning in 2025, and many industry observers will be watching this change carefully. Can A&K truly enhance the shore excursion experience for its sister cruise line? How, specifically?
The bottom line: The human advisor offers care, concern and a level of humanity that I believe AI will never duplicate. I wish you a new year of dreams fulfilled and safe travels.