Arnie Weissmann
ABOARD THE WILLIAM WORDSWORTH -- In addition to running a luxury travel agency, Eric Maryanov is president of Travel Agent Management Solutions (TAMS), a group whose members aggregate their combined agencies' data to create benchmarks, identify potential problems and develop solutions before possible business disruptions hit.
We're both among a group of journalists and travel advisors sailing the Danube from Budapest to Vienna prior to this week's ASTA River Cruise Expo.
The U.S. stock markets hadn't yet closed for the day, but I was already getting alerts about what was to be the biggest one-day drop in six months.
I asked Maryanov whether TAMS members were seeing any impact on sales from the economic uncertainty and declines in consumer confidence that were rattling markets (President Trump had also just said that a recession was possible).
Maryanov had concerns about inbound travel from Canada and whether Americans might become nervous about how they'd be received in certain countries, but so far, no -- no cancellations, no nervous phone calls.
Perhaps, Maryanov suggested, it was because the market had just come off a few very good years and that those over 60 had weathered previous economic storms and experienced recovery and robust growth. Even if his clients saw a 5% decline in the value of their portfolio, he said, it wouldn't really make a dent in their sense of security -- they still had plenty.
Shortly afterward, I sat down with Riviera Travel CEO Phil Hullah and the line's newly minted North America president Stuart Milan. The U.K.-based company positions its riverboats in the "midpremium space, a high-quality product that is actually well priced," Hullah said.
His clientele is primarily British, and I asked if he were seeing any impact on bookings there or in the U.S.
"The honest answer is yes. We came into the year in a strong position, but we can definitely see that there's wariness in the both the U.K. and North American markets," Hullah said. "It's not surprising, given what's happening. People are browsing more, taking longer to think, 'Am I really ready for this?' The volume at the top of funnel -- website traffic, inquiries -- is really high. But it's not an easy environment right now to trade in. Is that fair for the North America market, Stu?"
"It's probably more stark in North America than in the U.K., especially over the last couple of weeks," Milan responded. "Speaking to U.S. colleagues and people who deal with the U.S. business, it's been a noticeable drop-off over the last couple of weeks.
"But look, what can you do?" he continued. "We've just got to keep going at it. These things come and go very quickly, so let's just make sure we're positioning ourselves as best as we can for when it comes back."
I also spoke with Mark Stubbert, vice president of member relations for Ensemble, whose executives and members are in both the U.S. and Canada. Stubbert is Canadian, based in Toronto, and he said President Trump's comments about making Canada the 51st state is having an emotional impact that, along with economic questions surrounding tariffs, is having a clear impact on Canadians' willingness to book American companies.
"I've already heard from several [Canadian] members who have clients that have canceled bookings when they've learned the company is American," he said. "A Canadian client was on a ship and kept hearing from American passengers all the rhetoric about Canada being the 51st state. He had five sailings booked, and when he got off, he canceled them all because the cruise lines were listed as American companies. Over $100,000 in bookings.
"And other members are saying the same thing, that people are asking, 'Is such-and-such U.S. based?'"
The rhetoric is creating tension that wasn't there before, Stubbert said. "We're not just allies, we're friends. And we're very proud to be Canadian. I don't like it when they boo 'The Star-Spangled Banner.' But now Canadians are literally going into the stores and saying, 'Is this American? If so, I'm not buying it.' I have friends who won't go to Starbucks anymore. They love Starbucks, but they won't buy Starbucks. And that just hurts both of us."
Non-American companies will be the beneficiaries, he added.
"The market for Canadians going into the U.S. will see further declines in bookings," Stubbert predicted. "We typically quote prices in U.S. dollars, but we're wondering if it will be better to quote in Canadian dollars, even though our currency is weak right now."
As a consortium, he worries that Ensemble members will be caught in the middle.
"What we used to call 'suppliers' are now 'preferred partners,' because they are partners. We are both only successful if we support each other. We're trying to support them at the consortium level, but now sometimes in opposition to our members. And they, in turn, in opposition to their clients. How does that conversation go?"